Counterpoint has more than halved the smartphone growth rates it was forecasting for this year, and now expects US iPhone sales to fall year-on-year.
It says that it expects Apple to pass on at least some of the tariff costs to consumers, increasing the prices of the iPhone 17 over those of the current models …
Counterpoint Research was originally expecting healthy global growth in this smartphone market this year, at 4.2%. However, given the likely impact of US tariffs combined with other challenges in China, it has now cut that forecast to 1.9%.
In the US, it now predicts a fall in year-on-year sales of both iPhones and Samsung smartphones due to “expected price rises from tariffs.”
Counterpoint Research has revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% YoY from 4.2% YoY, citing renewed uncertainties surrounding US tariffs.
Most regions are expected to grow, except North America and China. North America is expected to decline due to expected price increases from tariffs. China has been revised down to near-flat YoY growth on weaker-than-expected market reaction to the government’s subsidy program.
Apple and Samsung’s growth projections have been revised down as cost increases are expected to be passed on to consumers, hurting demand — this despite some easing of the tariff burden compared to earlier worst-case scenarios.
While we don’t currently know whether Trump will unfreeze the most insane levels of tariffs he announced and then “paused,” even the current levels are expected to have unwanted consequences for Apple.
It indicates that it may further reduce its forecasts for the US market should the tariff situation deteriorate.
Counterpoint Research’s current forecasts assume a relatively stable tariff environment through 2025, although the escalating rhetoric and uncertainty around trade policy could significantly impact OEM pricing strategies, supply chain planning, and, ultimately, consumer demand.
9to5Mac’s Take
We don’t yet know whether Apple will do this, but it’s not an unreasonable prediction. So far, the company has absorbed the extra costs, but given it estimated that doing so is costing it almost a billion dollars this quarter, it does seem plausible that it will increase prices when the iPhone 17 launches.
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